The public competitive futurist prediction site, Metaculus, has a new leaderboard system. I was top 1% forecaster in 2022, coming in 40th out of 4940 predictors. In 2023, I am 28th out of 4950 predictors for 1 year baseline accuracy (almost to 0.5%). In 2023, I am 21st out of 2000 predictors for 2 year …
